Could Brisbane’s property growth take over as Australia’s top performing market? Today I’m going to look at the following key indicators to discover if this is possible.
Future Population Growth
I recently completed a Michael Mutisik Master Class. Michael Matuisk is a leading Australian Analyst who looks at forecasting. One of the key points a took away from this learning was that 75% of Australian population growth and job growth was expected to occur in Sydney, Melbourne and South East QLD with 25% growth predicted for each of these three markets.
New Jobs Created in 2017
Core Logic recently looked into some data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. They found that 113,000 new jobs were created in QLD which was actually a higher number than NSW and Victoria.
Interstate and Overseas Migration
Interstate migration in South East QLD has recently changed (Australians moving to other areas in Australia). More Australians are now moving to South East QLD than Sydney and Melbourne.
Melbourne has been leading the way since 2013 and before that is was Sydney. This is quite a significant change and is likely due to job growth, affordability of this market and un-affordability of other markets.
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Property Price Gap and Average Household Income Gap Between Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane
The difference between the average property price in one market vs. the average property price in another market.
BRISBANE VS. SYDNEY
Property prices in Sydney are now 102% more expensive than Brisbane.
Whereas, the average household income in Sydney is only 12.9% higher than Brisbane right now.
With the lifestyle opportunities and good employment, Brisbane is going to become more and more attractive to all Australians.
BRISBANE VS. MELBOURNE
Property prices in Melbourne are now 57% more than Brisbane property prices.
Whereas, the average household income in Brisbane is actually now HIGHER than the average household income in Melbourne. This has not happened for a long time and questions the Myth than Melbourne and Sydney are the markets with the money.
With the cost of housing being 50-100% more expensive in these markets many Australians will be forced out of them and into markets that are more affordable.
If Australians can earn the same income (or slightly less in the Sydney vs. Brisbane comparison) and pay 50 – 100% less for their home, the population growth projections and property growth projections for Brisbane and South East QLD begin to make sense.
The Last 10 Years
The last 10 years in Sydney and Melbourne (in particular the last 5 years) has seen exceptional growth. Depending who’s data you look at these markets have seen 60-80% growth in the last 10 years.
Brisbane on the other hand has had a very slow 10 years. Again, depending who’s data you look at the average annual growth for the last 10 years has been 1-2% per annum.
Herron Todd White provided a Month In Review Report indicating where each Australian market is in the property cycle. Their latest report indicated Sydney is now in The Decline phase, Melbourne is approaching The Peak and Brisbane is currently in a Rising Market.
These are a few of the key indicators I have been able to find to suggest that Brisbane could take over Sydney and Melbourne as Australia’s Top Performing Property Market in the next 5 years. As an investor this data is really interesting to me and suggests an interesting future for South East QLD.
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