It’s impossible to time the property market.
We will never be able to accurately predict the true top or the true bottom of any market. We can however learn from history.
In 1983 a UK economist named Fred Harrison wrote a book called The Power In The Land. It accurately predicted the 1990 recession based on over 300 years of UK property price history. In 2005 Fred published a second book titled Boom Bust which accurately predicted the 2007 GFC based on the same data. An Australian economist named Phil Anderson wrote another book The Secret Life Of Real Estate & Banking back in 2009, which found the same 18.6 years of real estate cycle in the US land market after reviewing over 250 years of US property price history.
Neither Fred nor Phil currently expect another GFC-style event until after 2026. They are both unconcerned by the noise in the media right now.
I have found it helps to understand history. History can not only helps us make better decisions as investors but its lessons can be used to set up a better life for our families.
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